Welcome to the latest chapter in our Visions of Britain 2020 series, looking at the workforce of 2020. This is the second chapter in our research campaign and revealing what the workforce could look like in a decade’s time seems the perfect place to conclude our employment theme. And what a different workforce it will be.
As with our last report, which looked at the workplace, our findings demonstrate some startling differences for the decade to come. I’ll share some of these in further detail soon, but for now let me give you an overview of what we’ve found.
- Older workers look set to grow in numbers and in power. Over the next decade, as experience and the power of corporate memory becomes more valued, two million extra older workers will hold the aces.
- Britain’s graduates are in for a tough time. With over nine million graduates in the workplace in 2020 – an increase of 50% on today’s numbers – job opportunities will be even scarcer, requiring graduates to resort to more enterprising methods of finding employment than ever before.
- Faced with a squeeze on both their money and their time, the sandwich generation will require sympathetic employers. The relative shortage of skilled labour and the appreciating value of experience will be their levers to force a more flexible approach from employers.
- However, flexible working won’t solve all our problems. The trade-off for more flexible working is actually more hours at work.
This is just a snapshot, but what it says to me is that workers must prepare themselves for the increasingly competitive and challenging times ahead. We need to recognise that an innovative and enthusiastic approach to work will be vital to succeed.
I hope you enjoy the report and I’d be very interested in your thoughts.
Trevor Matthews, CEO, Friends Provident
Comments
Very interesting report and much needed to add momentum to the debate on how to provide effective elder and child care in a high employment society. With more than 80% of employees having either parental or caring responsibilities during their career this is an issue that needs to be considered by both employers and wider society.
The conclusion that flexible working or rather the ability to work flexibly, will create more problems than it solves, particularly when considering psychological health and knowledge sharing is an interesting interpretation of the data.
Many organisations, particularly international private sector and NGOs have been running virtual teams successfully for years. Yes, this can only work on a bedrock of trust. But, many organisations have successfully overcome barriers to build strong, creative and innovative teams across timezones and cultures. Why is it that working flexibly within a country is not perceived in the same way?
The argument that teams cannot function remotely or in a virtual context is similar to that used 20 years ago when co-location of line managers was used as a substitute for good management. It is part of the myth that perpetuates presenteeism and the long hours culture which is known to harm overall organisational productivity and damage both physical and psychological health as well as adversely impact gender equality.
Productivity in a knowledge economy does require different behaviours, however, co-location and productivity are not necessarily directly related.
With the future of the economy and the workforce now a central focus for government and policy makers this report is an intersting contribution to a growing body of work in this area.
At the Resolution Foundation our concern is assessing the place of low earners in the future economy and the section of the report on flexible working is of great interest because low earners tend not to work in the sort of occupations where flexible working is a viable option.
One corollary of low earners’ reduced ability to work flexibly is that when they fall into the ‘sandwich generation’ they can become unable to full-time work at all and eveidence has shown that many low earners in part-time work with few opportunities for progression have done so to fulfill caring responsibilities at home.
On a more general note, my personal view is that the extent to which the workforce will be employed in the ‘knowledge economy’ is being rather overplayed right now. Employment in high-tech services and manufacturing presently accounts for less than 10% of all jobs in the UK and it would take rapid growth and sustained, targeted investment to increase that significantly over the next decade.