Visions of Britain 2020 launched

16 February 2010

2020 vision reveals a British workforce divided into the 'powerful' elite and the excluded

Research shows nearly one million ‘excluded’ British workers in 2020

Britain’s workforce has reached a pivotal point and is polarising into two distinct groups – the elite and the excluded – which by 2020 will be the norm. This will have significant implications on employers and individuals, warns Friends Provident in its Visions of Britain 2020, a report conducted with the Future Foundation. (www.visionsofbritain2020.co.uk)

The elite – workers in technical, professional and managerial roles - will command more power in the workplace than ever before, requiring employers to radically rethink how they attract and retain their specialist skills. Meanwhile nearly one million excluded workers – typically younger, unskilled males - face poor prospects and limited expectations. The research shows that the attitudes and choices of individuals are the major causes of this polarisation, alongside factors such as the recession and outsourcing.

With businesses expected to face a shortage of elite workers in 2020, the report demonstrates the opportunity for excluded workers to bridge the divide by acting now and improving their skills through training.

Trevor Matthews, chief executive officer of Friends Provident, said:

"Our new report paints a worrying portrait of the British workplace ten years from now. This workplace polarisation trend identified in our report could lead to a growing band of excluded workers. At the same time a new breed of elite worker is also beginning to emerge, who by 2020 will carry more power than ever before.

"The statement 'our people are our greatest asset' will take on a new meaning for employers in 2020. But all is not lost for those ‘excluded workers’ and through our report we hope to raise awareness and enable people to take full advantage of the opportunities available to them both now and in the future."

Engaged elite vs. detached excluded

In 2020, elite workers will be able to demand more in salary and benefits, as well as experience a higher degree of personal and professional fulfilment than ever before. The report shows that flexibility, self motivation and a thirst for knowledge are key characteristics behind this trend and reveals a stark contrast with the excluded, who exhibit a sense of reluctance to change, inertia and naivety.

The report also found that this apathetic attitude towards self development is supplemented by a sense of complacency and unwillingness to change amongst the excluded audience. Almost two thirds expect a salary increase every year (59%) and over two-thirds feel their job is safe, despite the uncertain economic climate. Furthermore, despite a recognition that their jobs may move overseas by 2020, only 19% of the excluded audience would be prepared to move, compared with 35% of the elite audience.

Ian Brinkley of the Work Foundation, one of the experts consulted for the report, said:

"I certainly see a widening gap between the flexible knowledge worker and the apathetic excluded worker – which is typically the young, semi-skilled male. This is worrying, given the lack of foreign skilled workers coming into the country by 2020, and could be a missed opportunity for many people to put themselves in a strong position both personally and professionally."

The report however reveals a bright future for the elite worker in 2020. All of the employment experts* who were consulted for the report agree that companies will have to work harder and offer more to attract and retain these elite workers in 2020. Employers will have to do so through making jobs more fulfilling and keeping their elite employees engaged, rather than through salary and benefits.

This chimes with the views of the 1,000 respondents who where also polled for the report and the following statistics show their attitudes towards the workplace:

• 48% said enjoying their job is the most important factor, followed by job satisfaction (38%) and salary (30%).
• 78% of potentially elite workers said they would consider re-training in the future for a change of career compared with 58% of all respondents who said they would consider re-training in the future for a change of career.
• Conversely 41% of the potentially excluded audience (C2DE male aged 16-24) said they would consider re-training in the future for a change of career. Only 23% actually have re-trained to change their career, compared to 42% of all respondents.

These findings could create serious implications for businesses and HR in particular, with people management becoming a critical skill within the organisation. The emergence of a new workforce suggests employers and employees alike will need to reconsider their strengths and weaknesses to be able to adapt to and mange expectations in 2020.

- Ends -

Journalists requiring further information should contact:

Jo Swift, Cohn & Wolfe - 020 7331 5476

Emma Wylie, Friends Provident - 0845 268 4909

Keith Nolan, Friends Provident - 0845 641 7835

Ref: K007

Notes to Editors