Conclusions

Conclusions

In concluding we ask one simple question: what will be the biggest change in public health between now and 2020?

“Now and 2020? We’ll be fatter, older, we’ll have more diabetes, more chronic conditions... I work with the elderly and we’re facing this huge explosion and it’s put a massive demand on the health service. Already we do not know where to put them, don’t know what to do for the best; how to fund their care, all sorts of things. So what’s the biggest change? I would say it’s the ageing population and the huge amounts of chronic disease that that’s bringing us.” Dr Patricia Macnair, medical practitioner, journalist and broadcaster

“A move from a free NHS system (which few people value exactly because it is free) towards a paid for service, at least within primary care. Secondary care will probably remain free.” Dr Sarah Brewer

“People will be living longer, especially women. There will be many older people with many more complex problems and the nation will have to look at providing much more supported care for people who will be required to look after themselves more. We will have a greater number of old people who are possibly frail with complex problems and there will be a partnership approach to delivering care to those people because NHS will not be able to afford taking full responsibility for the ill and elderly.” Dr Amrit Bhargavd, GP, NHS Alliance

“More people living with long term conditions including cancers.” Niall Dickson, Chief Executive and Registrar, General Medical Council

By 2020 this country will face the enormous challenge of greater demands for long term, expensive care for the elderly. This will cause an exponential increase in the cost of running the NHS. It’s very unlikely that we will be able to afford this. Some hard choices lie ahead and the impact of long term care for the elderly will affect everyone. It gives the looming pensions crisis an extra edge, it gives the performance of the economy additional importance, it places a greater responsibility on us for our own health. Finally we’ll need to start an emotionally-charged debate on how long we provide care for.

“We can’t afford to go on treating everyone ‘till they’re 101 or whatever with all sort of active treatments. ...we spend huge amounts of money on very frail, elderly people who bounce in and out of hospital, who can’t really cope at home and we can’t afford or don’t have any nursing homes for them. ...there are some very challenging questions about where we draw the line.” Dr Patricia Macnair, medical practitioner, journalist and broadcaster

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